Abstract
Some writers have argued that mathematics curriculum change in Australia has been a mimicking of overseas trends until recent times when a more mature approach been developed. This claim is examined for the teaching of probability in South Australian schools from 1960 to the present. This recency and probability's distinctive requirements mean that the forces underlying its introduction are likely to be more accessible to the researcher than those for less radical changes. It is argued that neither a "colonial echo" nor a "coming to maturity" model are adequate to describe what happened. The forces for change have often been idiosyncratic, poorly integrated and poorly justified. They have been concerned more with content than with research findings or pedagogical difficulties. "Muddling through" may well be the best way to describe the process of change.