Abstract
International research suggests that early mathematical competences predicts later
mathematical outcomes. In this paper, we build on our previous study of young children’s
mathematical competencies (MacDonald & Carmichael, 2015) to explore the relationship
between mathematical competencies at 4-5 years, as measured by teacher ratings, and later
results on Years 3, 5, 7 and 9 NAPLAN numeracy tests. Data from a nationally-representative
sample of 2343 children participating in the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children
(LSAC) are examined. In line with overseas studies, we report moderate correlations between
pre-entry mathematics and later NAPLAN results. However, analysis of individual growth
trajectories suggests that in fact early mathematics predicts the initial (Year 3) level, but not
subsequent growth. This suggests that early mathematical competences are important for
enhancing outcomes in early schooling, but that the quality of mathematics education
provided in the schooling years is critical for future development.
Amy MacDonald & Colin Carmichael